College Bowl Mania: Tips and Strategies

By Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
Archive

ESPN.com's free College Bowl Mania game will be familiar to those who have played College Pick 'Em. The principle is the same: Pick the winner of each game, then rank the games in the order of your confidence in those picks. The twist, of course, is that College Bowl Mania requires you to rank 34 games in order of confidence rather than the usual 10.

You'll always be able to access your entry from the drop-down menu under the fantasy tab on the ESPN.com front page. Play against others from around the country or create your own private group to compete against your friends. The first bowl games are Dec. 20, so you must finalize your selections by that morning.

A second pick 'em game will run throughout the bowl season, with daily lock times. This game will not require confidence rankings; all picks will be worth the same value. Check the College Bowl Mania front page for details.

When making picks, it's important to consider the differences between bowl games and regular-season games. College football is unique among major sports in that teams compete for something other than the sport's overall championship during the postseason.

Because some picks are worth more than 30 points and others are worth only a point or two, College Bowl Mania has a different flavor than the standard 10-game pick 'em. The top picks carry so much more weight that it's important to examine each game from all possible angles. Scrutinize each team's credentials independently, then break down the matchup. Finally, determine what the stakes are for each team and determine which teams will be highly motivated to prepare and play their best.

The big picture

Your first assessment should be an examination of each team's progress during the season. Study each team's results and decide whether you are looking at an overrated team, an underrated team or neither. Explore what each team brings to the table and determine the relative strength of each team in a vacuum. Carefully examine each team's body of work during the season. Does the team have quality wins, or has its winning record been compiled against a soft nonconference schedule and the bottom half of its league? Has the team dominated in its wins, or has it scraped by on turnovers and timely big plays despite being consistently outgained? On what is the team's success predicated, and is that success sustainable?

Schedule strength is paramount. With 68 schools earning bowl bids, many teams in postseason play are below average in most areas. Separate the legitimate bowl-caliber teams from the teams that earned bids simply because of the glut of bowl opportunities. When checking each team's résumé, don't forget about recent form. Examine the strengths and weaknesses each team has displayed throughout the season and especially in its most recent games. Consider factors such as coaching and talent level, and try to arrive at a conclusion about exactly how inherently strong a teams is, offensively and defensively. Never forget to consider the strength of the team's conference. It is crucial to analyze not only the records and statistics of each squad but also the competition against which those accomplishments were compiled. Once you have a solid grasp on each team's overall qualifications, it's time to analyze the matchups.

The matchup

The next step is to break down the opposing teams from a statistical and personnel perspective, trying to determine how each team matches up against its specific opponent. Generally, you want your prospective pick's offensive strength matched against the other team's defensive weakness. Conversely, your side's defensive weakness should be matched against the opponent's offensive weakness. If your pick is a team that has a strong rushing attack, such as Alabama or Georgia Tech, you'd like to see a matchup with a team that cannot stop the run.

From a defensive perspective, however, you want the matchup to pit strength against strength and weakness against weakness. If your pick features a run-stuffing defense that's soft against the pass, such as Nevada's, you'd prefer to face a running team that has an anemic passing attack. Also, look beyond simple rushing and passing offense and defense stats. Explore specifics. There is little parity in college sports as compared with professional sports. Personnel mismatches such as small versus large and fast versus slow are regular occurrences. If an offensive line such as Wisconsin's, which almost always averages more than 300 pounds per man, is matched up against a smallish defensive front such as Utah's, it creates a potential mismatch. A wide receiving corps with great height, such as Memphis' group, can be a nightmare for a team that has short cornerbacks. Don't forget the special-teams matchups. A team with consistently poor kick coverage, such as Oklahoma, could give up cheap scores against a team with a top return man.

Also, identify the characteristics of the teams against which your pick has struggled. Has one team's defense shut down two-back power running teams but struggled with teams that run from a spread formation? How has the team fared versus mobile quarterbacks? Has the team's passing offense fared better against zone defenses or attacking-style man-to-man defenses? In examining each prospective pick's body of work, you usually find trends that establish that team's profile and also the profile of the types of opponents who are likely to cause problems. Once you have a good handle on how the teams match up against one another's strengths and weaknesses, it's time to move on to the intangibles.

Any given day

Once you have established each of the teams' performance baselines and determined what each is capable of accomplishing against its specific opponent, it's time to conduct the most important part of your bowl handicapping: figuring out how each team is likely to perform in this particular game.

The bottom line is discerning which team is more motivated to win. The simplest litmus test for establishing each team's level of desire is the question of whether the team's postseason destination meets its goals for the season. If so, the players are apt to be excited about being invited to that particular bowl and, consequently, will be focused in preparation and likely will play well. If the bowl berth is a disappointment and doesn't meet the team's preseason aspirations, the players will be less excited about the opportunity in front of them and will be more likely to turn in a lackluster performance on the field. Sometimes these answers are fairly obvious. If the preseason No. 1 team struggled to an 8-4 record and landed in the Fram Oil Filter Bowl in Fargo, N.D., those guys are not thrilled about being there. If the other team hasn't been to a bowl in 40 years, then yes, it's excited about the opportunity, even in frigid Fargo. LSU, for example, obviously would not be wowed by the chance to play in the Music City Bowl. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, would be pretty fired up about that assignment.

Even that determination is just part of the equation, though. You must establish what winning the game actually means to each team. Vandy may be happy just to be there. But a team like Rice -- which was blown out in its first bowl in many years (in 2006) and will make a return trip -- will be focused on winning the game this time around, not merely playing in it. Teams looking to make a statement in the bowl game are extremely dangerous. Last year, Missouri seemed to many to be an example of a disappointed squad, landing in the Cotton Bowl after beating everyone but Oklahoma and falling short of a BCS. But the Tigers came out ready to prove that their exclusion was a mistake and absolutely blasted a good Arkansas team. Listen to the comments of the coaches and players, and look for clues regarding the quality of the team's preparation. Once you've determined whether each team is likely to play at, above or below its normal baseline performance, you're ready to finalize your picks.

College Bowl Mania update schedule

There are a record 34 bowl games this season. I will post previews of all the bowls on Monday, then full write-ups and predictions for each bowl game the following Monday. Message board updates will follow later that week, and picks will lock on Dec. 20.

Will Harris is a college football and fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com.



 
Prizes

Play for your chance to win a $2,000 gift card and more!
Total ARV is $2,000